What impact will the new EU asylum law CEAS really have?

After years of preparation, one of the most significant reforms to asylum law in Germany and the entire European Union took effect on Friday.

The new "Common European Asylum System" (CEAS) will require that asylum seekers undergo a mandatory preliminary screening at the EU's external borders, in an attempt to speed up procedures for people coming from countries with low rates of acceptance of asylum applications.

This means that asylum seekers from countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Turkey and Nigeria will be subjected to fast-track border procedures in camps that are largely closed off. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, fewer than 20% of the asylum seekers from these and dozens of other countries have their rights to asylum recognized.

Gerald Knaus, an immigration expert and founder of the think tank "European Stability Initiative" (ESI), doubts that this will work. It will still be tough to deport people to their home countries, as rejected asylum seekers will likely just move on to another EU country, says Knaus.

"Actually, it has always been the case that the countries where asylum seekers arrive first are responsible for processing their applications. It just hasn't worked out that way. Why should it work now?" he asks.

According to the European Commission, the largest groups of asylum seekers in 2025 came from Afghanistan and Syria. The asylum recognition rate for people hailing from these two countries is over 20%. Consequently, individuals from these countries do not go through border procedures but rather through regular asylum procedures. And responsibility for these procedures also lies with the countries of first entry.

Knaus points out that although Germany and Austria do not lie on the EU's external border, more than half of all successful asylum applications in the EU within the last 10 years were granted in these countries.

Knaus believes that this will remain unchanged and that the numbers will be influenced more by developments in the asylum seekers' countries of origin than by EU law. "If the fall of the Assad regime brings an end to the exodus of Syrians entering the EU, then the number of asylum applications in Germany and Austria will also drop dramatically. That had nothing to do with the interior minister, nor does it have anything to do with CEAS, nor does it have anything to do with border controls," he told DW. Since the regime change in Syria at the end of 2024, the number of people leaving the country has been declining sharply.