Why Osun’s election matters for Nigeria’s 2027 vote

Osogbo, Nigeria – On Saturday, voters in southwestern Nigeria’s Osun State will choose their next governor. On paper, it is a contest over who will run a state of about 4.7 million people. But for Nigeria’s political class, it carries a broader question: What could the result reveal about the alliances, voter loyalties and political machinery that could shape the 2027 presidential election?

Osun is holding an off-cycle election, meaning its governor is elected separately from the presidential and National Assembly. With the next general election due in 2027, Osun is one of the last major electoral tests before the national vote.

The result will not predict who wins the presidency, but it could offer an early indication of whether President Bola Tinubu’s political influence in the southwest still translates into votes.

Several parties are contesting the election, but the race is largely centred on three candidates: incumbent Ademola Adeleke, who won the governorship on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket in 2022 and is now seeking re-election on the Accord Party platform; Bola Oyebamiji of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); and Najeem Folasayo Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Tinubu’s political career was built in neighbouring Lagos, but his family roots are in Osun. His cousin Adegboyega Oyetola governed the state from 2018 to 2022 before losing to Adeleke.

A victory by Tinubu’s APC would, therefore, be more than a routine change of governor. It would allow the party to reclaim a state it lost in 2022 and reinforce its position in a region central to the president’s political power.

The APC has also expanded its reach across Nigeria through a series of political defections with governors and senior politicians moving towards the ruling party.

Osun offers a different test, in which the APC has to win votes rather than simply gain politicians. A clear victory would strengthen the argument that the southwest remains a reliable base for Tinubu before 2027.