Houthi attacks threaten 2022 Yemen truce and Bab al-Mandeb oil supplies

Houthis have launched a series of deadly attacks over the last month, striking the government‑controlled port of al‑Makha, a commercial vessel in the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait and Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery. Six people died and ten were injured when a vessel was hit, and drone and rocket strikes on eastern Yemen killed at least 30 government soldiers. The attacks have pushed the country toward a new round of all‑out war, according to observers.

The violence follows a 2022 truce that ended the heaviest fighting between the pro‑Iranian Houthis and Saudi‑backed Yemeni government forces. Although the ceasefire reduced casualties, it left Yemen without a comprehensive peace deal. The conflict began in 2014 when the Houthis seized Sanaa and has since been a tug‑of‑war for control of the country. Regional tensions have intensified since the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, and Saudi Arabia has stepped up its military posture in Yemen.

Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council has rejected a new truce that mirrors past agreements, warning that any Houthi action will be met with force. Yet the council has also signalled that the Houthis could “lay down their arms, engage in political life and compete through the ballot box on an equal footing with all other Yemenis.” Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has begun a more proactive security strategy, including a maritime blockade that could cut off the Bab al‑Mandeb strait and threaten oil shipments to the Red Sea. The Houthis have already fired missiles toward Saudi Arabia and targeted Saudi oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu.

The situation remains fragile. If the Houthis continue their escalation, Yemen could slide back into full‑scale war, with wider repercussions for the Gulf and global oil markets. Diplomatic channels remain open, but the recent attacks have made a negotiated settlement more difficult. The international community watches closely as the balance between military pressure and political compromise shifts in the coming weeks.