Will Trump's latest beef plan make your hamburger cheaper? Not much, experts say

An order of ground beef is prepared for a customer at Deep Cuts butcher shop in Dallas on Oct. 21, 2025. Tony Gutierrez/AP hide caption

On Friday, President Trump announced a plan to temporarily lower tariff rates on some imported ground beef in hopes of reducing the price of the American dietary standby.

Trump said in a post on social media that the U.S. would "allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff. We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices."

The announcement, which rankled some U.S. ranchers and Republican lawmakers, comes just weeks ahead of the November midterm elections, when the economy and cost of living are expected to be among the top issues on voters' minds.

As inflation has risen, ground beef has often been a bellwether of surging consumer prices. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics , the average cost of a pound of ground beef jumped nearly 57% over the last five years.

Yet agricultural industry experts say they don't expect Trump's plan to lead to a major decline in prices at the meat counter.

"I don't think it's going to be $1.25 [less]" under Trump's plan, said Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics. "Now, we might see a quarter to 35 cents [less]."

U.S. consumers who bought ground beef last month paid an average of $6.89 per pound, federal data showed.