Fed meeting live updates: Anticipation builds with Fed expected to hike interest rates for first time in 3 years

The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting kicked off Tuesday morning, and markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid persistently high inflation.

Such a move would mark the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. However, inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices.

As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do."

Still, a hold isn't entirely off the table — even as traders price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool . Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been adamant about not providing markets with forward guidance on interest rate decisions, preferring that officials have a "good family fight" over the data at FOMC meetings.

In addition to the intrigue over whether the Fed will hike rates, markets will closely scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot , for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.

Brace for minor market tremors if the Fed hikes interest rates, as many on Wall Street think will happen later today.

The S&P 500 has declined by an average of 4.0% over the six weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across seven such episodes since 1988, per new analysis from strategists at The Kobeissi Letter.

Stocks recovered all of those losses over the next five to six weeks on average. In the six months following the first interest rate hike, the S&P 500 returned 4.0% on average. After 12 months, the S&P 500's average gain tallied +9.0%. Positive returns have occurred in every episode except 2022 over the twelve months.