Republican pollster discusses GOP voters' outlook as midterms approach

NPR's Leila Fadel checks in on GOP voters' outlook with Republican pollster Jim Hobart of Public Opinion Strategies.

LEILA FADEL, HOST: For more on where Republican voters stand with less than two months before the midterms, we turn to Jim Hobart. He's a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies. Good morning, and welcome back to the program. JIM HOBART: Good morning. Thank you. FADEL: Thanks for being here. So polling shows the president's approval ratings are low. Having the president on the campaign trail, does that help or hurt Republican candidates in the midterms, would you say? HOBART: I think most Republicans are going to welcome the president to their states and districts. We see this quite frequently in midterm elections. The primary goal or one of the big goals of the party that's in control is making sure their voters turn out. We know the other side is going to be motivated. In 2010 and 2014, Republicans were very fired up, so you saw Barack Obama on the campaign trail trying to get Democrats to show up to vote in the midterm. Same thing in 2018. And we're seeing the same dynamic here in 2026, that Republican candidates are going to be tied to President Trump no matter what. And so the hope is that him being with them on the campaign trail doing these rallies that he's become famous for could help with turnout, especially given that so much of this campaign is being fought in red-leaning areas, in states like Ohio, in states like Texas, in states like Iowa and Alaska. FADEL: Is there a concern that the Republican voter is not fired up, does not want to turn out this year? HOBART: Well, what we're seeing is that Republican interest is getting higher. What we call the enthusiasm gap, in the spring, was more in favor of Democrats, right? Democrats have been very enthused. They were showing up at higher levels in special elections. And what we've seen is that enthusiasm gap closing as we've gotten closer to election day. And the hope is that as Republicans are investing more resources into these campaigns, as they are showing what in a lot of ways are Democrats who are out of step with the mainstream, out of step with your average voter, that that's going to increase enthusiasm among Republican voters even further. Again, we're already seeing some enthusiasm increase. The hope is you see it so it matches where Democratic enthusiasm is. FADEL: I want to ask about some specific moments from last week's convention. The president promising to give Americans $5,000 if Republicans win, having people take an oath that included a promise to cheat like hell, telling people they'll go to hell if they don't vote. Are these things going to help or hurt Republicans on the ballot this fall? HOBART: I think, you know, you've seen some lukewarm reaction to the $5,000 checks, mainly because I think a lot of people in Congress don't know if they can pass. And as Mara was saying earlier, this is something that the president has done a lot, right? He's made a lot of these types of promises. And then the president's rhetoric is the president's rhetoric. There's only one politician who talks like he does. And there's only one politician who can get away with talking like he does. But a lot of this is baked in, right? It's no surprise that President Trump uses some crass language sometimes. So I don't think there's voters who that's going to make a difference for. He kind of is who he is at this point. FADEL: I mean, the big thing for voters right now is just how expensive everything is, how expensive life is. And that includes gas prices. And a lot of that is to blame over this foreign policy decision to go to war in Iran. I mean, how do Republican candidates appeal to voters as the incumbent party when the cost of living is so high right now? HOBART: I think you're going to see a good deal of focus on what they did with the One Big Beautiful Bill, right? The cut to - cut on taxes on tips, cut on taxes on overtime and things like that. And I think, as someone was saying earlier in your program, I do think they're going to look to see if they can pass something in this last week that Congress is in to address energy prices. But I always say gas prices are kind of the Dow Jones of American politics. When gas prices are up, it's that much more difficult for the incumbent party. So certainly, as Republicans look to what could help them out as we get closer to fall, finding a way for gas prices to be lower is certainly something they're hoping for. FADEL: We heard Mara talk about one strategy, which is to point out the failings of the Democrats. I mean, Republicans have been framing this election as one about commonsense views versus what they say are extremist views of Democrats to vote against the Democrat. Will that be an effective strategy? HOBART: Republicans certainly hope so. And they certainly have the resources to do it, given the financial advantage they have. They're going to deploy a lot of resources in states like Texas, states like Michigan to show that those candidates, James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, are out of touch with the mainstream - right? - are extreme-type candidates who voters in those states, hopefully, just can't bring themselves to vote for. And that's certainly one of the big strategies over the next 50 days or so. FADEL: That was Republican pollster Jim Hobart with Public Opinion Strategies. Thank you for your time. HOBART: Yeah, thank you. Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

LEILA FADEL, HOST: For more on where Republican voters stand with less than two months before the midterms, we turn to Jim Hobart. He's a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies. Good morning, and welcome back to the program. JIM HOBART: Good morning. Thank you. FADEL: Thanks for being here. So polling shows the president's approval ratings are low. Having the president on the campaign trail, does that help or hurt Republican candidates in the midterms, would you say? HOBART: I think most Republicans are going to welcome the president to their states and districts. We see this quite frequently in midterm elections. The primary goal or one of the big goals of the party that's in control is making sure their voters turn out. We know the other side is going to be motivated. In 2010 and 2014, Republicans were very fired up, so you saw Barack Obama on the campaign trail trying to get Democrats to show up to vote in the midterm. Same thing in 2018. And we're seeing the same dynamic here in 2026, that Republican candidates are going to be tied to President Trump no matter what. And so the hope is that him being with them on the campaign trail doing these rallies that he's become famous for could help with turnout, especially given that so much of this campaign is being fought in red-leaning areas, in states like Ohio, in states like Texas, in states like Iowa and Alaska. FADEL: Is there a concern that the Republican voter is not fired up, does not want to turn out this year? HOBART: Well, what we're seeing is that Republican interest is getting higher. What we call the enthusiasm gap, in the spring, was more in favor of Democrats, right? Democrats have been very enthused. They were showing up at higher levels in special elections. And what we've seen is that enthusiasm gap closing as we've gotten closer to election day. And the hope is that as Republicans are investing more resources into these campaigns, as they are showing what in a lot of ways are Democrats who are out of step with the mainstream, out of step with your average voter, that that's going to increase enthusiasm among Republican voters even further. Again, we're already seeing some enthusiasm increase. The hope is you see it so it matches where Democratic enthusiasm is. FADEL: I want to ask about some specific moments from last week's convention. The president promising to give Americans $5,000 if Republicans win, having people take an oath that included a promise to cheat like hell, telling people they'll go to hell if they don't vote. Are these things going to help or hurt Republicans on the ballot this fall? HOBART: I think, you know, you've seen some lukewarm reaction to the $5,000 checks, mainly because I think a lot of people in Congress don't know if they can pass. And as Mara was saying earlier, this is something that the president has done a lot, right? He's made a lot of these types of promises. And then the president's rhetoric is the president's rhetoric. There's only one politician who talks like he does. And there's only one politician who can get away with talking like he does. But a lot of this is baked in, right? It's no surprise that President Trump uses some crass language sometimes. So I don't think there's voters who that's going to make a difference for. He kind of is who he is at this point. FADEL: I mean, the big thing for voters right now is just how expensive everything is, how expensive life is. And that includes gas prices. And a lot of that is to blame over this foreign policy decision to go to war in Iran. I mean, how do Republican candidates appeal to voters as the incumbent party when the cost of living is so high right now? HOBART: I think you're going to see a good deal of focus on what they did with the One Big Beautiful Bill, right? The cut to - cut on taxes on tips, cut on taxes on overtime and things like that. And I think, as someone was saying earlier in your program, I do think they're going to look to see if they can pass something in this last week that Congress is in to address energy prices. But I always say gas prices are kind of the Dow Jones of American politics. When gas prices are up, it's that much more difficult for the incumbent party. So certainly, as Republicans look to what could help them out as we get closer to fall, finding a way for gas prices to be lower is certainly something they're hoping for. FADEL: We heard Mara talk about one strategy, which is to point out the failings of the Democrats. I mean, Republicans have been framing this election as one about commonsense views versus what they say are extremist views of Democrats to vote against the Democrat. Will that be an effective strategy? HOBART: Republicans certainly hope so. And they certainly have the resources to do it, given the financial advantage they have. They're going to deploy a lot of resources in states like Texas, states like Michigan to show that those candidates, James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, are out of touch with the mainstream - right? - are extreme-type candidates who voters in those states, hopefully, just can't bring themselves to vote for. And that's certainly one of the big strategies over the next 50 days or so. FADEL: That was Republican pollster Jim Hobart with Public Opinion Strategies. Thank you for your time. HOBART: Yeah, thank you. Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

For more on where Republican voters stand with less than two months before the midterms, we turn to Jim Hobart. He's a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies. Good morning, and welcome back to the program. JIM HOBART: Good morning. Thank you. FADEL: Thanks for being here. So polling shows the president's approval ratings are low. Having the president on the campaign trail, does that help or hurt Republican candidates in the midterms, would you say? HOBART: I think most Republicans are going to welcome the president to their states and districts. We see this quite frequently in midterm elections. The primary goal or one of the big goals of the party that's in control is making sure their voters turn out. We know the other side is going to be motivated. In 2010 and 2014, Republicans were very fired up, so you saw Barack Obama on the campaign trail trying to get Democrats to show up to vote in the midterm. Same thing in 2018. And we're seeing the same dynamic here in 2026, that Republican candidates are going to be tied to President Trump no matter what. And so the hope is that him being with them on the campaign trail doing these rallies that he's become famous for could help with turnout, especially given that so much of this campaign is being fought in red-leaning areas, in states like Ohio, in states like Texas, in states like Iowa and Alaska. FADEL: Is there a concern that the Republican voter is not fired up, does not want to turn out this year? HOBART: Well, what we're seeing is that Republican interest is getting higher. What we call the enthusiasm gap, in the spring, was more in favor of Democrats, right? Democrats have been very enthused. They were showing up at higher levels in special elections. And what we've seen is that enthusiasm gap closing as we've gotten closer to election day. And the hope is that as Republicans are investing more resources into these campaigns, as they are showing what in a lot of ways are Democrats who are out of step with the mainstream, out of step with your average voter, that that's going to increase enthusiasm among Republican voters even further. Again, we're already seeing some enthusiasm increase. The hope is you see it so it matches where Democratic enthusiasm is. FADEL: I want to ask about some specific moments from last week's convention. The president promising to give Americans $5,000 if Republicans win, having people take an oath that included a promise to cheat like hell, telling people they'll go to hell if they don't vote. Are these things going to help or hurt Republicans on the ballot this fall? HOBART: I think, you know, you've seen some lukewarm reaction to the $5,000 checks, mainly because I think a lot of people in Congress don't know if they can pass. And as Mara was saying earlier, this is something that the president has done a lot, right? He's made a lot of these types of promises. And then the president's rhetoric is the president's rhetoric. There's only one politician who talks like he does. And there's only one politician who can get away with talking like he does. But a lot of this is baked in, right? It's no surprise that President Trump uses some crass language sometimes. So I don't think there's voters who that's going to make a difference for. He kind of is who he is at this point. FADEL: I mean, the big thing for vote