What to expect as midterm campaign season kicks off

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Charlie Cook, founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, about the outlook for Democrats and Republicans as midterm campaign season kicks off.

LEILA FADEL, HOST: Let's dive a little deeper with veteran elections analyst Charlie Cook. He's the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and he writes a column for the National Journal. Charlie, good morning, and welcome back to the program. CHARLIE COOK: Good morning, Leila. FADEL: So in your latest column, you lay out three likely outcomes for Republicans - bad, really bad and truly horrible. So suffice to say no good options (laughter) there. You predict the most likely outcome is, quote, "really bad." What does that look like in terms of losing seats? COOK: Really bad would be Republicans losing four or five, with four being the number that would tip the House over - I mean, the Senate over into Democratic hands, and maybe 26 to 35 or so House seats. And 26 is the - you know, the World - post-World-War-II average is four and 26 in the House. They are real - I mean, there are real reasons why this shouldn't be this bad for Republicans, and we didn't think it was. But just in the last couple of months, it's been moving towards what was the probably worst-case scenario before now is sort of - right? - you know, almost average. And - but this is normal for presidents, but now it's starting to look worse than normal. FADEL: So normal when the president is from the party. COOK: Yeah. Yes. FADEL: So it's a Republican president. But what has - you said we didn't expect this a few months ago. What has changed? What's different now? COOK: You've got some places that haven't voted Democrat since Moby Dick was a guppy... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...And they're - where Democrats are really overperforming. I mean, places like Iowa and - in Senate and governor, Ohio, Senate and governor, Texas, Senate and governor. And that's actually the interesting thing - Alaska, Senate - where Democrats are doing better than you'd think in some places where they normally do horribly. But Democrats are also struggling a little bit in places like Maine and Michigan and... FADEL: Interesting. COOK: ...Maybe Minnesota - places that should be, you know, easier for them. FADEL: How much of this is about policies that hurt people's pocketbooks? And I'm thinking of tariffs, the Iran war that's led to high gas prices. COOK: Midterm elections are sort of time for a change or stay the course. And whether it's the war in Iran, whether it's inflation, you know, and with that, you know, fuel costs, fertilizer, food, all these things. And part of what's happening is that people in the heart of President Trump's base, you know, a guy with a pickup truck that gets 20 miles a gallon and it takes 100 bucks to refill it, I mean, that - this is a core constituency and they - you know, I don't know that many of them are going to actually vote Democratic, but I'll tell you what, they sure as heck may not show up and vote at all, which is a - you know, that would be a bad thing for Republicans up and down the ticket. So Republicans, it's a turnout challenge. For Democrats it's not, because their people, they are motivated. They really are. I mean, whether they were in 2024 or not, they are now. FADEL: What is motivating them? COOK: OK, no civics teacher is going to say this... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...But the most powerful emotion in politics is hate, and when people in one party truly hate the leader of the other party, that's a big motivator to turn out. And it was true when Biden - you know, when Obama was present, it was true when Biden was president, it's true when Trump's president. FADEL: That's Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Thank you, Charlie, for your time and your insights. COOK: Thanks, Leila. (SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

LEILA FADEL, HOST: Let's dive a little deeper with veteran elections analyst Charlie Cook. He's the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and he writes a column for the National Journal. Charlie, good morning, and welcome back to the program. CHARLIE COOK: Good morning, Leila. FADEL: So in your latest column, you lay out three likely outcomes for Republicans - bad, really bad and truly horrible. So suffice to say no good options (laughter) there. You predict the most likely outcome is, quote, "really bad." What does that look like in terms of losing seats? COOK: Really bad would be Republicans losing four or five, with four being the number that would tip the House over - I mean, the Senate over into Democratic hands, and maybe 26 to 35 or so House seats. And 26 is the - you know, the World - post-World-War-II average is four and 26 in the House. They are real - I mean, there are real reasons why this shouldn't be this bad for Republicans, and we didn't think it was. But just in the last couple of months, it's been moving towards what was the probably worst-case scenario before now is sort of - right? - you know, almost average. And - but this is normal for presidents, but now it's starting to look worse than normal. FADEL: So normal when the president is from the party. COOK: Yeah. Yes. FADEL: So it's a Republican president. But what has - you said we didn't expect this a few months ago. What has changed? What's different now? COOK: You've got some places that haven't voted Democrat since Moby Dick was a guppy... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...And they're - where Democrats are really overperforming. I mean, places like Iowa and - in Senate and governor, Ohio, Senate and governor, Texas, Senate and governor. And that's actually the interesting thing - Alaska, Senate - where Democrats are doing better than you'd think in some places where they normally do horribly. But Democrats are also struggling a little bit in places like Maine and Michigan and... FADEL: Interesting. COOK: ...Maybe Minnesota - places that should be, you know, easier for them. FADEL: How much of this is about policies that hurt people's pocketbooks? And I'm thinking of tariffs, the Iran war that's led to high gas prices. COOK: Midterm elections are sort of time for a change or stay the course. And whether it's the war in Iran, whether it's inflation, you know, and with that, you know, fuel costs, fertilizer, food, all these things. And part of what's happening is that people in the heart of President Trump's base, you know, a guy with a pickup truck that gets 20 miles a gallon and it takes 100 bucks to refill it, I mean, that - this is a core constituency and they - you know, I don't know that many of them are going to actually vote Democratic, but I'll tell you what, they sure as heck may not show up and vote at all, which is a - you know, that would be a bad thing for Republicans up and down the ticket. So Republicans, it's a turnout challenge. For Democrats it's not, because their people, they are motivated. They really are. I mean, whether they were in 2024 or not, they are now. FADEL: What is motivating them? COOK: OK, no civics teacher is going to say this... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...But the most powerful emotion in politics is hate, and when people in one party truly hate the leader of the other party, that's a big motivator to turn out. And it was true when Biden - you know, when Obama was present, it was true when Biden was president, it's true when Trump's president. FADEL: That's Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Thank you, Charlie, for your time and your insights. COOK: Thanks, Leila. (SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Let's dive a little deeper with veteran elections analyst Charlie Cook. He's the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and he writes a column for the National Journal. Charlie, good morning, and welcome back to the program. CHARLIE COOK: Good morning, Leila. FADEL: So in your latest column, you lay out three likely outcomes for Republicans - bad, really bad and truly horrible. So suffice to say no good options (laughter) there. You predict the most likely outcome is, quote, "really bad." What does that look like in terms of losing seats? COOK: Really bad would be Republicans losing four or five, with four being the number that would tip the House over - I mean, the Senate over into Democratic hands, and maybe 26 to 35 or so House seats. And 26 is the - you know, the World - post-World-War-II average is four and 26 in the House. They are real - I mean, there are real reasons why this shouldn't be this bad for Republicans, and we didn't think it was. But just in the last couple of months, it's been moving towards what was the probably worst-case scenario before now is sort of - right? - you know, almost average. And - but this is normal for presidents, but now it's starting to look worse than normal. FADEL: So normal when the president is from the party. COOK: Yeah. Yes. FADEL: So it's a Republican president. But what has - you said we didn't expect this a few months ago. What has changed? What's different now? COOK: You've got some places that haven't voted Democrat since Moby Dick was a guppy... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...And they're - where Democrats are really overperforming. I mean, places like Iowa and - in Senate and governor, Ohio, Senate and governor, Texas, Senate and governor. And that's actually the interesting thing - Alaska, Senate - where Democrats are doing better than you'd think in some places where they normally do horribly. But Democrats are also struggling a little bit in places like Maine and Michigan and... FADEL: Interesting. COOK: ...Maybe Minnesota - places that should be, you know, easier for them. FADEL: How much of this is about policies that hurt people's pocketbooks? And I'm thinking of tariffs, the Iran war that's led to high gas prices. COOK: Midterm elections are sort of time for a change or stay the course. And whether it's the war in Iran, whether it's inflation, you know, and with that, you know, fuel costs, fertilizer, food, all these things. And part of what's happening is that people in the heart of President Trump's base, you know, a guy with a pickup truck that gets 20 miles a gallon and it takes 100 bucks to refill it, I mean, that - this is a core constituency and they - you know, I don't know that many of them are going to actually vote Democratic, but I'll tell you what, they sure as heck may not show up and vote at all, which is a - you know, that would be a bad thing for Republicans up and down the ticket. So Republicans, it's a turnout challenge. For Democrats it's not, because their people, they are motivated. They really are. I mean, whether they were in 2024 or not, they are now. FADEL: What is motivating them? COOK: OK, no civics teacher is going to say this... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...But the most powerful emotion in politics is hate, and when people in one party truly hate the leader of the other party, that's a big motivator to turn out. And it was true when Biden - you know, when Obama was present, it was true when Biden was president, it's true when Trump's president. FADEL: That's Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Thank you, Charlie, for your time and your insights. COOK: Thanks, Leila. (SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Let's dive a little deeper with veteran elections analyst Charlie Cook. He's the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and he writes a column for the National Journal. Charlie, good morning, and welcome back to the program. CHARLIE COOK: Good morning, Leila. FADEL: So in your latest column, you lay out three likely outcomes for Republicans - bad, really bad and truly horrible. So suffice to say no good options (laughter) there. You predict the most likely outcome is, quote, "really bad." What does that look like in terms of losing seats? COOK: Really bad would be Republicans losing four or five, with four being the number that would tip the House over - I mean, the Senate over into Democratic hands, and maybe 26 to 35 or so House seats. And 26 is the - you know, the World - post-World-War-II average is four and 26 in the House. They are real - I mean, there are real reasons why this shouldn't be this bad for Republicans, and we didn't think it was. But just in the last couple of months, it's been moving towards what was the probably worst-case scenario before now is sort of - right? - you know, almost average. And - but this is normal for presidents, but now it's starting to look worse than normal. FADEL: So normal when the president is from the party. COOK: Yeah. Yes. FADEL: So it's a Republican president. But what has - you said we didn't expect this a few months ago. What has changed? What's different now? COOK: You've got some places that haven't voted Democrat since Moby Dick was a guppy... FADEL: (Laughter). COOK: ...And they're - where Democrats are really overperforming. I mean, places like Iowa and - in Senate and governor, Ohio, Senate and governor, Texas, Senate and governor. And that's actually the interesting thing - Alaska, Senate - where Democrats are doing better than you'd think in some places where they normally do horribly. But Democrats are also struggling a little bit in places like Maine and Michigan and... FADEL: Interesting. COOK: ...Maybe Minnesota - places that should be, you know, easier for them. FADEL: How much of this is about policies that hurt people's pocketbooks? And I'm thinking of tariffs, the Iran war that's led to high gas prices. COOK: Midterm elections are sort of time for a change or stay the course. And whether it's the war in Iran, whether it's inflation, you know, and with that, you know, fuel costs, fertilizer, food, all these things. And part of what's happening is that people in the heart of President Trump's base, you know, a guy with a pickup truck that gets 20 miles a ga