Why the Kremlin fears even the ‘managed opposition’ in Russia

In the weeks leading up to the Duma elections, the Kremlin accelerated what is known in the country as “ballot sterilisation”. It removed the remaining risk factors that could demonstrate any form of public dissatisfaction.

Candidates of the so-called managed opposition parties, such as the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), have been arrested or barred from running, thus diminishing the prospect for a protest vote against the governing United Russia. Last month, Yabloko, the only openly antiwar party, was barred from fielding candidates.

In the past, voting for these parties has been encouraged by opposition leaders excluded from running, such as the late Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny , as a form of anti-regime vote.

This time the Kremlin is not taking any chances. Public dissatisfaction is widespread and the risk of a display of dissent at the ballot box is too high to let the managed opposition run freely. The election must produce a result that “proves” national unity and full support for President Vladimir Putin and the governing United Russia party.

Yabloko is the only surviving officially registered political party in Russia that adheres to democratic principles and openly opposes the war in Ukraine. It has pulled through multiple waves of political repression over the years that destroyed or forced all others into exile.

In July, Yabloko was allowed to register for the Duma elections. The decision to let the party run likely came out of the Kremlin’s desire to show confidence – to claim that elections in Russia are so free that even an openly antiwar party can participate amid the ongoing war with Ukraine.

Yabloko had about 4 percent support just before the election campaign started and was likely going to get between 1 and 2 percent of the vote, like in previous Duma elections – well below the 5 percent threshold to enter the legislature.

What changed? The registration of Yabloko prompted a mass, uncoordinated surge of interest due to its antiwar slogans. Searches in Russia’s top search engine, Yandex, containing the party’s name and the word “elections” increased fivefold , surpassing even those for the governing United Russia.