SpaceX targets $1 trillion revenue by 2030, analysts skeptical.

SpaceX’s chief, Elon Musk, announced on its latest earnings call that the company plans to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. The goal would make SpaceX the first private firm to hit that figure in a single calendar year, but analysts say Amazon is likely to beat it. Last year SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, and the company now needs to double that amount each year for five straight years to meet the target.

The key to the growth is a massive build‑out of artificial‑intelligence data centers on Earth and in orbit. Musk said the company spent $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure last quarter—roughly twice its quarterly revenue. If the current pace continues, SpaceX expects to achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2024. The company is also betting on the near‑unlimited demand from AI firms for cloud computing services, and it already has contracts worth about $26 billion a year with Alphabet and Anthropic.

Starlink, the satellite‑based internet service, is a secondary driver. Its revenue grew 66 % year over year to $4.3 billion in the last quarter and is expected to expand as new, higher‑capacity satellites are launched. However, Starlink alone will not close the gap to $1 trillion; most of the revenue will have to come from the AI data‑center business. SpaceX’s recent IPO raised around $100 billion, giving it a war chest to fund this aggressive expansion.

Investors remain cautious because the target requires more than double‑digit growth for half a decade, a feat no company has yet achieved. Even if SpaceX reaches $1 trillion, some analysts argue it would still be overvalued, especially when compared to Amazon’s broader revenue streams. The race to $1 trillion will likely spur further investment in AI infrastructure and satellite services, reshaping the competitive landscape for both space and cloud computing markets.