Indonesia wildfires could emit 1.5 gigatons of CO₂ in 2026

Indonesia’s 2026 wildfires are projected to release carbon emissions that match the highest single‑year record of this century, Carbon Brief reports. The forecast comes from satellite‑based monitoring of peatland fires across Sumatra and Kalimantan, regions that have burned more than 10 % of their forest area in recent El Niño years. The analysis shows that the 2026 fire season could emit roughly 1.5 gigatons of CO₂, a figure comparable to the 2020 peak.

The surge is driven by a combination of dry weather, rising temperatures, and human activity. El Niño brings lower rainfall to Indonesia, turning peatlands into tinder. Farmers and loggers then clear land with fire, a practice that has been hard to curb. The country’s rapid economic growth has increased demand for palm oil and timber, fueling the cycle. Climate scientists warn that peat fires release not only CO₂ but also methane and black carbon, all of which accelerate warming.

Carbon Brief’s model uses data from NASA’s MODIS and ESA’s Sentinel‑2 satellites, combined with ground‑based emission inventories. The latest figures suggest that, if current trends continue, Indonesia could emit more than 1 % of the world’s annual CO₂ in a single year. The Indonesian government has pledged to reduce fire‑related emissions, but enforcement of peatland protection laws remains weak. International NGOs have called for stricter monitoring and for the country to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, citing the high cost of peatland restoration and the potential for feedback loops that could push global temperatures further.

If the 2026 forecast proves accurate, it will push Indonesia closer to its 2030 net‑zero target and highlight the urgent need for peatland conservation. The international community may need to step up support for fire‑free farming and reforestation. Meanwhile, scientists will monitor the situation closely, as the data could inform global carbon budgeting and help assess the risk of overshooting the 1.5 °C temperature limit.